U.S. Medicare, Social Security Face Early Insolvency Forecasts
The Medicare hospital insurance trust fund is now anticipated to be depleted by 2033—a revision that accelerates the timeline by three years compared to the 2036 forecast issued in 2024. Similarly, the estimated exhaustion date for the combined Social Security trust funds has shifted to 2034, marking a one-year advancement from last year’s projection.
The last significant reform to Social Security occurred in 1983, when legislation was passed to gradually increase the full retirement age to 67, effectively reducing benefits by 13 percent. Meanwhile, Medicare eligibility has not changed, with benefits still beginning at age 65.
Currently, Medicare covers roughly 68 million Americans.
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